Speculation about Russia's veto.

It's odd to decry a country's lack of transparency and then insist upon reacting to every single one of their actions in strictly black or white terms. And yea and verily do I once again find myself in disagreement with Blake Hounshell over Russia. The Passport blogger suggests that Russia's veto of sanctions against Zimbabwe happened because Putin is still running the shots in Moscow, not Medvedev. He believes this because last Tuesday, Medvedev stated that Russia had concerns over Mugabe's violence during the aftermath of the election. According to him the reversal of this position isn't simply because Medvedev never had any intention of following through on sanctions - that would be uninteresting, banal, and based in reality - nor does Hounshell take into account that it might have anything to do with the Czech-US radar deal which was signed the day Medvedev apparently changed his mind about Zimbabwe. This agreement is something which Russia feels very strongly about and I believe it would be enough for them to retaliate. I also believe that Russia never had any intention of voting for sanctions, but the radar deal incited them to move from abstaining to vetoing. I, uh, also should point out that I think that Russia's veto is wrong.

Also, another possibility is that Russia really doesn't want to go on record as criticizing another country's electoral process. Just throwing that out there.

I really don't think speculation about Russia's political decisions has ever been something that is immediately discernible. That caveat aside, I doubt Putin is the head of a shadow government. It's more likely that Medvedev is sitting in a precarious position atop a massive bureaucratic structure which was built and staffed by Putin. Even if Putin is not the head of the government, in many ways Russia's is a Putinist government. But that hardly means that he's nefariously running the show and maneuvering to contradict Russia's president.

There will inevitably be conflict and tension between Medvedev and Putin (not to mention between Medvedev and Putin's bureaucracy) but I don't think the veto was one of those conflicts. And even if it was I don't think it's as big a deal as Hounshell is implying.