*Here is what may be the first of a monthly electoral map recap and prediction. I hope it's somewhat interesting...I promise I will get better and more efficient at it....
Obama's 50 state strategy, while still in its infancy, is beginning to take shape. He has the money and the volunteer base to set up competitive operations, and he definitely has the polls on his side.
Obama's most recent spreads in national tracking ranges from +3 to +7, which he has more or less been sitting on since he clinched the nomination. An interesting [and extremely speculative] side to all this -- beyond the pundits that are quick to give McCain more credit and fidelity than he deserves -- is that given the raw number of turn-out in all the primaries, Obama could sit on a + 1 to -5 spread through November and simply roll out an election day turn-out that would dwarf McCain's... and seriously undermine the national trackings.
None the less, Obama can and will most likely win big in electoral votes. Skipping the solid blue and red states, and for the mean time skipping the leaning states, look at the pure toss ups -- CO, IN, NC, NH, NM, MI, MO, OH, VA (didn't pull these out of nowhere).
I've gone through collections of tracking polls for these states (pollster and rcp) looking at the head to head match up, and if a state either is of late clearly for a candidate, or if it is clearly trending, then I give it to the respective contender. Here are the states I consequently see going to each candidate, with the number being the sum of the electoral votes.
McCain = 42 (NV, IN, MI, NH, NC)
Obama = 58 (NM, CO, MO, OH, VA)
Ok. If we add-and-subtract these toss-ups into the 2004 Kerry/Bush map [which if anything is generous to McCain], the total electoral prediction is:
OBAMA 289/ McCAIN 249
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This is pretty informative, thanks. I really hope these feelings of optimism remain through the fall. But I think that Obama's strategy has the potential to be enormously effective.
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